高盛：全球资金开启“硬资产轮动”，大宗商品或迎长期溢价

Core Insights - Investors are shifting funds from financial assets to hard assets like commodities to seek refuge amid increasing global market volatility [1] - Goldman Sachs indicates that this "hard asset rotation" may sustain high prices for various metals beyond what their physical supply-demand fundamentals would typically support [1] Group 1: Hard Asset Rotation - The rotation towards hard assets is driven by rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, leading investors to diversify into tangible assets [1][2] - Hard assets include commodities, real estate, and infrastructure, which are attracting funds away from traditional financial assets like stocks and bonds due to their inflation-hedging properties [1] Group 2: Price Dynamics of Metals - Precious metals and copper are expected to have greater price appreciation potential compared to oil and natural gas during this rotation [1][2] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $5,400 per ounce for gold by December 2026, driven by private sector diversification demand [1][3] - Copper prices are also supported by hard asset rotation and strategic reserve demand, with a strong foundation for price increases [1] Group 3: Mechanisms of Price Influence - The rotation towards hard assets is closely linked to investor positioning and commodity prices, with significant short-term price impacts from capital inflows due to the smaller market size of commodities [2] - Structural reasons for the price potential of metals include market depth differences, supply elasticity, and storage costs [2] Group 4: Specific Commodity Sensitivities - For gold, a 1 basis point increase in its allocation within U.S. financial portfolios could lead to a price increase of approximately 1.5% [3] - Copper prices are sensitive to fund flows, with a 1 standard deviation increase in net managed funds potentially raising prices by about 6.9% in the short term [3] - Oil prices exhibit greater short-term elasticity, with a similar increase in net managed funds potentially pushing prices up by around 10% [3] Group 5: Market Outlook - The current trend of capital allocation towards hard assets may lead to some metal prices, like copper, operating above their fundamental supply-demand levels, creating structural premiums [5] - This investment-driven price support is becoming a mid-term pricing variable in the commodity market, influenced by market sentiment and macroeconomic expectations [5]