Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-10 13:44Core Insights - China's electricity consumption is projected to reach 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase and surpassing 10 trillion for the first time in a single country [2] - The rapid growth in electricity consumption reflects the ongoing transformation of China's economy from high-speed expansion to high-quality development [5] Group 1: Electricity Consumption Breakdown - The primary sector's electricity consumption is expected to reach 149.4 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, a 9.9% increase, indicating accelerated rural modernization [6] - The secondary sector will consume 6,636.6 billion kilowatt-hours, with a 3.7% growth, supporting stable manufacturing outputs [8] - The tertiary sector's electricity consumption is projected at 1,994.2 billion kilowatt-hours, growing by 8.2%, highlighting the increasing importance of the service industry [8] - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption is expected to reach 1,588 billion kilowatt-hours, a 6.3% increase, driven by improved living standards [8] Group 2: Economic Correlation - Electricity consumption growth is closely linked to GDP growth, with electricity usage often outpacing GDP during periods of economic activity [10] Group 3: Energy Structure and Transition - By the end of 2025, China's installed power generation capacity is expected to exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, with non-fossil energy sources accounting for 60% [11] - Clean energy generation is projected to constitute 35.2% of industrial power generation, reflecting a 2.1 percentage point increase from the previous year [11] - The share of non-fossil energy consumption is expected to rise to approximately 21%, surpassing oil as the second-largest energy type [11] Group 4: Cross-Border Electricity Trade - China plans to export approximately 20 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity across borders by 2025, with 16 countries connected to its power network [12] - Over 90% of the electricity exported is green energy, aiding neighboring countries in reducing fossil fuel dependency [12][15] - China's electricity equipment exports are projected to exceed $24 billion by the end of 2025, with significant growth in wind power and high-voltage equipment [17] Group 5: Future Projections - China's electricity consumption is expected to continue rising, with annual growth rates projected between 4.2% and 5.6% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, potentially exceeding 13 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2030 [21] - The share of non-fossil energy is anticipated to increase further, with wind and solar capacity targets set at 3.6 billion kilowatts [23] - China's energy transition story reflects its economic strength and positions it as a leader in global energy governance [24]