Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-02-10 14:05Core Insights - Morgan Stanley highlights that the AI promotion battle during the Spring Festival is driven by a shift in user habits towards chatbots, leading to a long-term high growth in Token consumption [1][2] - The firm predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 330% for China's Token consumption from 2025 to 2030, suggesting that the focus should be on "second-tier winners" such as AI infrastructure providers and companies related to advertising [2] Group 1: AI Promotion Strategies - Major tech companies are adopting different strategies during the Spring Festival, with the core goal of capturing user entry points and mind share in the AI era [3] - Tencent is implementing a "growth-first" strategy with a 1 billion RMB red envelope campaign to lower user barriers and quickly increase the installation and activation of its AI product [3][4] - Alibaba's strategy includes a 3 billion RMB "Spring Festival Treat Plan" aimed at increasing the adoption rate of its AI product "Tongyi Qianwen" and fostering a commercial habit of initiating transactions through AI interfaces [4] Group 2: Token Consumption Forecast - Morgan Stanley forecasts that China's AI inference Token consumption will grow from approximately 10 trillion in 2025 to about 3,900 trillion by 2030, representing a staggering increase of around 370 times [5] - This explosive growth is driven by increased penetration of AI in consumer and enterprise workloads, as well as the expansion of application scenarios from simple conversational AI to complex agents and multimodal outputs [5] - The structure of inference demand is expected to change significantly, with the proportion of conversational AI in total consumption decreasing from nearly half in 2025 to a high single-digit percentage by 2030 [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The demand for GPUs is expected to remain either oversupplied or undersupplied in the coming years, influenced by the rapid growth in Token consumption [1][6] - The performance improvements from next-generation hardware, such as Nvidia's Blackwell, and software stack optimizations are expected to significantly enhance the amount of Tokens processed per GPU hour [6]