“双反”终裁落地，三元生物出路在哪？

Core Viewpoint - The final ruling on anti-dumping and countervailing duties ("double reverse") against Chinese erythritol products has been announced, with Tsinghua Biotech facing a maximum combined tax rate of 93.58%, significantly impacting its market competitiveness in the U.S. [2][3] Group 1: Tax Rates and Impact - Tsinghua Biotech's final anti-subsidy rate is 8.63%, and the anti-dumping rate is 84.95%, leading to a total tax rate of 93.58% [2][3] - The company did not qualify for separate rate status, resulting in a nationwide unified tax rate of 184.26% for other producers/exporters without separate rate qualifications [3] - The high tax rates are expected to weaken Tsinghua Biotech's cost competitiveness in the U.S. market, leading to potential order reductions and market share loss [3] Group 2: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The U.S. is projected to have a per capita sugar and sweetener consumption of approximately 121 pounds (about 55 kg) in 2025, with erythritol being a popular choice due to its natural and zero-calorie properties [5] - Global demand for erythritol is expected to reach 238,000 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong market demand [5] - The global erythritol market is forecasted to reach $2.63 billion by 2030, with a growth rate of 21.0% during the 2024-2030 period [5] Group 3: Industry Competition and Challenges - The introduction of new production capacities in 2022 has led to an imbalance in the erythritol market, resulting in increased competition and a risk of low-quality products displacing higher-quality ones [6] - Analysts note that erythritol is not a high-barrier product, and ongoing innovations may highlight its limitations [7] Group 4: Strategic Alternatives - Tsinghua Biotech can potentially circumvent the high tariffs by altering product forms, such as selling processed erythritol products directly to consumers [8] - The company is exploring third-party channels and overseas production to maintain market access in the U.S. [8] - Tsinghua Biotech is also developing alternatives like allulose, which is gaining global recognition and is expected to expand its market significantly [9]