NIKE Stock Breaks Below 50-Day SMA: Buying Sign or Time to Exit?

Core Viewpoint - NIKE Inc. (NKE) has experienced a decline in stock performance, falling below key moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment and a lack of investor confidence [1][2][23]. Stock Performance - NKE shares have dropped 15.6% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry's decline of 12.8% and the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector's 6.9% decline [6]. - The stock closed at $62.41 on February 9, 2026, which is 19.4% above its 52-week low of $52.28 and 24.3% below its 52-week high of $82.44 [10]. Technical Analysis - The stock has fallen below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $63.89 and its 200-day SMA, indicating a shift from short-term bullish to bearish sentiment [1][2][9]. - A drop below these moving averages typically signals weakness and reflects fading investor confidence [2]. Competitive Landscape - NKE's performance is notably weaker than competitors such as Carter's Inc. (CRI) and Steven Madden (SHOO), which have seen stock increases of 56% and 48.5%, respectively, in the same timeframe [7]. - NKE also lagged behind adidas AG (ADDYY), which experienced a decline of only 3.8% [7]. Margin and Revenue Challenges - NIKE faces significant margin pressure due to $1.5 billion in annualized product costs linked to higher U.S. tariffs, which is expected to impact fiscal 2026 margins by 320 basis points [12]. - Greater China revenues fell by 16%, with EBIT dropping nearly 50%, highlighting geographic weaknesses and challenges in brand premiumization [13]. Future Outlook - NIKE has guided for low-single-digit revenue declines in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, along with another quarter of margin contraction, indicating a bleak near-term outlook [15]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 EPS remains unchanged, while the estimate for fiscal 2027 EPS has decreased by 1.2% [16]. Valuation Concerns - NIKE's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 28.94X, which is higher than the industry average of 26.45X and the S&P 500's average of 22.98X, raising concerns about the stock's valuation [19][20]. - Compared to peers like Carter's, Steven Madden, and adidas, which have lower P/E ratios, NIKE's valuation appears misaligned with its growth trajectory [20].