Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-11 00:11Group 1 - The overall price spread in the chemical industry expanded in January, with the CCPI-raw material price spread reaching 2631, which is in the 15th percentile since 2012, up from 2500 at the end of 2025, driven by geopolitical conflicts affecting oil prices and rising resource prices [1][6] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in 2026, supported by improved profitability in bulk chemicals as supply-side adjustments accelerate under the "anti-involution" policy, and demand growth from emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1][4] Group 2 - The January PMI was reported at 49.3, indicating a slowdown in capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry, which has been declining since June 2025, suggesting a potential supply-side turning point [2][18] - The demand for chemical products is shifting from real estate to consumer goods, infrastructure, and emerging technologies, with domestic chemical products benefiting from global cost advantages [2][9] Group 3 - Oil prices have been supported by expectations of lithium battery storage growth, rising crude oil prices, and winter heating demand, leading to price increases in certain chemical products [3][35] - However, some products experienced price declines due to supplier price adjustments, maintenance recoveries, and reduced acceptance of high prices by downstream consumers [3][35] Group 4 - The chemical industry is approaching a turning point in capital expenditure, with significant declines since June 2025, and the "anti-involution" policy expected to facilitate supply-side adjustments [4][18] - The recovery in demand and exports, particularly to Asia and Africa, is anticipated to support the gradual recovery of bulk chemicals [4][34] Group 5 - The January oil price increase was influenced by geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, with WTI and Brent crude prices rising by 13.57% and 16.17% respectively compared to the end of December [21][6] - The outlook for oil prices suggests a potential bottoming out and recovery in 2026, driven by demand recovery and global inventory replenishment [21][34] Group 6 - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from high dividend assets as capital expenditure declines, with companies likely to increase their willingness and ability to distribute dividends [34][34] - The phosphate resource sector is projected to maintain high profitability for at least three years, attracting investor interest [34][34]