东吴证券：加大力度推进全国碳市场建设 二次扩围渐近版图清晰

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a notification to enhance the national carbon market construction, indicating a clear expansion of the carbon trading market by 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Carbon Market Management - Strengthening the management of key emission units in power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with a focus on quota compliance by 2025 [2]. - Key emission units with direct emissions reaching 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent must be included in the 2027 national carbon trading market list, to be published by provincial ecological environment departments by October 31, 2026 [2]. - Data quality management for key emission units will be organized by provincial departments, with a control plan due by December 31, 2026 [2]. Group 2: Reporting and Verification - Other key industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, paper, and civil aviation are required to report their 2025 emissions data, with verification deadlines set for March 31 and December 31, 2026 [3]. - Industries not yet included, like steel and cement, must also report by March 31, 2026, with verification by July 31, 2026 [3]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Future Outlook - The carbon market currently covers approximately 8 billion tons of emissions, accounting for over 60% of national carbon emissions, with plans to expand coverage to major industrial sectors by 2027 [4]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is preparing technical documents for quota distribution and verification for industries like chemicals, petrochemicals, and civil aviation, supporting the market's expansion [4]. - The tightening of long-term quotas is expected to drive carbon prices upward, alongside total control and a combination of free and paid allocations [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on clean energy companies such as Longjing Environmental Protection and those involved in biofuels and green hydrogen [5]. - Companies engaged in energy-saving technologies and waste resource recovery are also highlighted for investment opportunities [5]. - Carbon monitoring firms like Xuedilong and JuGuang Technology are suggested for attention due to their relevance in the evolving carbon market [5].