特朗普晒美印能源大协议，莫迪刻意留白不履约，俄靠亏损甩卖找退路，中国藏巧于拙

Group 1 - India's response to the U.S. tariff reduction was limited to a thank you, with no mention of halting Russian oil purchases, indicating a subtle rift among the U.S., Russia, and India [2] - Indian state-owned and private oil companies have quietly rejected new offers for Russian oil shipments scheduled for March and April, suggesting a significant reduction in imports after April [2] - Despite reducing imports, India has not completely severed ties with Russian oil, as some oil can still enter through a joint venture company, although technical maintenance at a refinery may hinder this [2] Group 2 - India relies on imports for 90% of its oil, with over half of its refining capacity designed for Russian Ural crude, making a switch to U.S. light crude costly and complex [4] - Russia has shifted its export focus to China in response to India's reduced oil purchases, with discounts on Russian oil reaching record levels [4] - In January 2026, China's imports of Russian oil reached a historical high of 1.7 million barrels per day, driven by low prices, while maintaining a balanced procurement strategy [4] Group 3 - Russia's oil and gas revenue plummeted by 50% year-on-year in January 2026, leading to significant financial pressure and willingness to sell oil below production costs [6] - The U.S. claim that India would stop purchasing Russian oil was not formalized in any agreement, and the proposed alternative of Venezuelan oil lacks feasibility [6] - India's invitation to over 100 countries for an AI summit shortly after the U.S.-India agreement indicates its strategy to balance relations between the U.S. and Russia [6]