Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-02-11 03:28Core Viewpoint - Despite a 50% surge in stock price within a month, short-sellers are intensifying their positions against Pop Mart, leading to a precarious standoff in the market [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Short-Selling Dynamics - Pop Mart's stock has seen a significant increase, yet short-sellers have not retreated, with short positions rising from 2% to 16% of free-floating shares [1]. - The short squeeze risk score for Pop Mart has reached the maximum of 100, indicating potential for a rapid price increase if the stock continues to rise [1]. - The current market structure shows a larger short position compared to institutional long holdings, creating a crowded one-sided bet [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analyst Insights - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment regarding Pop Mart's future growth, particularly in overseas markets, with short-sellers expressing skepticism [4]. - Despite management's efforts to support the stock price through buybacks, short interest has continued to rise, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's fundamentals [5]. - Analysts have pointed out that the recent stock price increase is not driven by fundamental factors, suggesting that short-sellers may see this as an opportunity to increase their positions [5]. Group 3: Potential for Market Volatility - The ongoing battle between the company's defensive measures and the aggressive stance of short-sellers is escalating, with both sides preparing for potential volatility [7]. - The market is at a critical juncture, where either a forced exit by short-sellers due to margin pressure could lead to a price surge, or deteriorating fundamentals could burst the stock price bubble [7].