盈利大幅不及预期，福特仍高喊反弹，比亚迪已在身后超车

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company reported its largest quarterly earnings miss in four years for Q4, with guidance indicating 2026 will be a year of performance rebound [1] - Ford's global vehicle sales have fallen behind BYD for the first time [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBIT for 2026 is projected to be between $8 billion and $10 billion, up from $6.8 billion last year [1] - Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be between $5 billion and $6 billion, an increase from $3.5 billion in 2025 [1] - Capital expenditures are forecasted to be between $9.5 billion and $10.5 billion, higher than the previous estimate of $8.8 billion [1] - The latest earnings per share (EPS) fell 32% below consensus expectations, marking the first quarterly miss since 2024 and the worst performance since Q4 2021 [1] Cost Factors - The earnings miss was primarily due to unexpected tariff costs of approximately $900 million, linked to delays in the automotive parts credit policy [1] - Additional impacts on earnings were attributed to a fire at Novelis' aluminum supply plant, which is expected to fully resume operations by mid-year [2] - The fire incident is estimated to have caused about $2 billion in impact on Ford [2] Business Segments - Ford's traditional and fleet businesses are expected to offset losses of $4 billion to $4.5 billion from the "Model e" electric vehicle segment [3] - The "Ford Pro" fleet business is projected to generate pre-tax profits of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, followed by the traditional "Blue" business with expected profits of $4 billion to $4.5 billion [3] - Ford recorded a net loss of $8.2 billion last year, the largest annual loss since the 2008 financial crisis, with Q4 reflecting a net loss of $11.1 billion [3] Market Position - Ford's global wholesale vehicle sales declined nearly 2% in 2025, totaling just under 4.4 million units [3] - BYD's global sales reached 4.6 million units, surpassing Ford for the first time and elevating BYD to the sixth position in global automotive sales [3]