ALD(SZ:300696) Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2026-02-11 04:35Core Viewpoint - The recent developments surrounding Aileida (300696) include regulatory warnings and performance forecasts, which have created mixed market sentiments, with profit recovery expectations supporting stock prices while internal control issues raise short-term concerns [1]. Regulatory Dynamics - On January 30, 2026, the company received a warning letter from the Sichuan Securities Regulatory Bureau, highlighting deficiencies in internal control and accounting practices, such as issues with revenue recognition [1]. - The actual controller's share transfer has been completed, with Xinghan Yuanhang acquiring an 18% stake, becoming a significant shareholder [1]. Performance Forecast - Aileida announced a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 55 million to 70 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [1]. - The anticipated recovery is driven by increased demand from military and civilian customers, expanded order delivery scale, and cost optimization from lean management [3]. Stock Performance - As of February 10, 2026, Aileida's stock price closed at 31.79 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.81%, but a cumulative decline of 0.66% over the past five days [2]. - Significant fluctuations in capital flow were noted, with net outflows of 766.65 million yuan on February 6 and 1,688.80 million yuan on February 9, followed by a net inflow of 277.94 million yuan on February 10 [2]. - The stock is currently near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (31.84 yuan), with short-term resistance at 34.45 yuan and support at 29.22 yuan [2]. Financial Analysis - The 2025 performance forecast indicates a turnaround, with the first three quarters showing a revenue increase of 75.75% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 350.81% year-on-year [3]. - The accounting issues raised in the warning letter, particularly regarding revenue recognition, warrant attention due to their potential impact on financial compliance [3]. - If the full-year performance meets expectations, it may alleviate the current high valuation pressure, with a trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 230 times [3].