高盛前瞻美国1月非农：新增就业人数或仅为4.5万 劳动力市场正逐步降温

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs anticipates a weaker than expected non-farm payroll growth for January, projecting an increase of 45,000 jobs, which is below the market expectation of 70,000 and lower than the average growth of slightly above 50,000 in the previous two months [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4%, with an anticipated month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings of 0.35% [1] - Several factors are expected to drag down the official employment data, including an update to the "birth-death" model by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which Goldman estimates could reduce overall non-farm employment growth by 30,000 to 50,000 jobs [1] Group 2 - Alternative or "big data" employment indicators tracked by Goldman show that hiring momentum remains weak, with an average increase of about 40,000 jobs for the month [1] - Public sector employment is expected to remain flat, providing little support to overall job growth, while labor demand indicators have shown signs of softening [1] - The Conference Board's labor differential index has significantly declined in January, reaching its lowest level since early 2021, indicating a weakening perception of job availability [1] Group 3 - On a positive note, Goldman points out that several offsetting factors may limit downside risks, such as a decrease in initial jobless claims and a reduction in the number of companies reporting layoffs [2] - Seasonal factors that typically lead to significant job losses at the beginning of the year are expected to adjust over time, reducing the extent of seasonal drag [2] - Employment in the retail and construction sectors is projected to rebound, following weaker holiday hiring and disruptions caused by weather in December [2]