HSBC HOLDINGS(HK:00005) Ge Long Hui·2026-02-11 06:51Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings has reached a historical high in stock price, closing at 139.3 HKD on February 9, with a daily increase of 3.34%, reflecting strong market sentiment ahead of its earnings report [1][6]. Technical Analysis - The stock's technical chart shows a combination of "new highs" and "overbought indicators," indicating a battle between bullish and bearish signals [1]. - The stock price is significantly above key moving averages, particularly MA30 at 130.05 HKD and MA60 at 121.38 HKD, suggesting a solid medium to long-term upward trend [1]. - Short-term indicators, such as the 10-day moving average (MA10) at 137.14 HKD, indicate a potential correction as the stock price diverges from this level [1][2]. - The 14-day RSI has reached 66, indicating accumulated profit-taking pressure, while other oscillators also signal overbought conditions [2]. Key Support and Resistance Levels - The first resistance level is identified at 143.4 HKD, which aligns with historical volatility and concentrated call option positions [3]. - The primary support level is at 134.4 HKD, which coincides with the 10-day moving average and is crucial for determining short-term strength [3]. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - The privatization of Hang Seng Bank is a key fundamental catalyst driving HSBC's stock price, with estimated pre-tax synergies of 800 to 900 million USD, enhancing growth expectations [6]. - There is a notable divergence in fund flows, with large orders showing net outflows while smaller orders exhibit significant net inflows, indicating differing sentiments between institutional and retail investors [6][7]. Derivative Market Insights - The derivative market shows a concentration of bullish sentiment with significant investments in far-out-of-the-money call options, reflecting aggressive investor expectations [7]. - Recent performance of warrants indicates that they can amplify returns in a low-volatility environment, with specific call options showing gains of 6% to 8% [8]. Product Analysis and Strategy - For investors expecting a breakout above resistance, call options with strike prices slightly above 143.4 HKD are recommended, offering leverage of approximately 7.2 times [10]. - Conversely, for those anticipating a potential pullback, put options with strike prices well below the second support level of 129.2 HKD are suggested as high-leverage hedging tools [11][12].