国泰海通:1月造纸行业提价逐步落地 盈利进入改善通道
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-11 06:54

Group 1 - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the import wood pulp spot market in January shows mixed factors and significant structural differences leading to divergent price trends [1] - The price of broadleaf pulp has increased, while white cardboard continues to issue price increase notices, and cultural paper prices have stabilized, with slight pressure on profitability [1][6] - The wood pulp market is expected to see a decrease in supply followed by an increase, with insufficient demand and gradual transmission of white paper prices, while black paper prices remain under pressure [1] Group 2 - In the cultural paper segment, as of January 28, the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper is 4725 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.08% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.66% [2] - Factors affecting price trends include stable terminal prices from paper mills, cautious purchasing by distributors, limited new orders from the social market, and limited cost support from the upstream wood pulp market [2] Group 3 - In the white cardboard segment, as of January 28, the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard is 4268 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.74% [3] - Price changes are primarily driven by limited cost pressure relief, continued price increase notices from large paper mills, and weak purchasing intentions from distributors [3] Group 4 - In the corrugated paper segment, as of January 28, the average market price for AA-grade 120g corrugated paper is 2751 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 11.60% and a year-on-year increase of 5.82% [4] - Price changes are influenced by the failure of price increase notices from large paper mills, high inventory levels at small paper mills, and a decline in raw material prices [4] Group 5 - In the waste paper segment, as of January 28, the average market price for waste yellow board paper is 1574 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 10.29% and a year-on-year increase of 2.13% [5] - Price trends are affected by declining finished paper sales, increased arrival volumes at paper mills, and price adjustments from leading paper companies [5] Group 6 - In the wood pulp market, needle pulp has seen a slight decline, while external prices for broadleaf pulp continue to rise [6] - The price trends are influenced by fluctuations in paper pulp futures, rising costs for imported broadleaf pulp, and increased supply leading to weak demand for imported unbleached pulp [6]

Guotai Haitong Securities-国泰海通:1月造纸行业提价逐步落地 盈利进入改善通道 - Reportify