申万宏源：春运期间多次出游占比提高 超长假期激发消费活力

Core Insights - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan highlights the expected high demand during the 2026 Spring Festival due to the "9-day no work holiday" policy and visa-free benefits, predicting a record 95 million passenger trips in civil aviation, which represents a 5.3% year-on-year increase [1][2] - The focus of investment is shifting from merely passenger flow to structural analysis, suggesting a focus on companies with cross-border business flexibility and unique emotional value [1] Group 1: Transportation and Travel Demand - The civil aviation sector is expected to see a significant increase in passenger transport during the Spring Festival, with airlines planning to operate 657,000 flights, a 5% increase year-on-year [2] - The railway sector anticipates transporting 539 million passengers, also a 5% increase, with peak travel days expected around February 13-14 and February 23 for return trips [2] - The overall travel market is experiencing a diverse and sustained growth trend, with family travelers making up 39% of ticket users and seniors over 60 years old accounting for 19% [2] Group 2: Domestic Tourism Trends - The average booking price for family rooms is 9% higher than other types, with a 77% year-on-year increase in bookings for standalone villas during the winter vacation [2] - There is a notable shift in travel preferences, with families with children favoring tropical destinations and middle school families interested in urban cultural experiences [2] - Emerging destinations such as Shantou and Jieyang in southern China are gaining popularity, alongside a doubling in hotel bookings in Hainan and heritage cities like Huangshan and Jingdezhen [2] Group 3: Outbound Tourism Growth - Outbound travel demand has surged, with booking volumes increasing nearly 40% year-on-year in the past two weeks [3] - Southeast Asia now accounts for nearly 50% of international outbound flights, with Thailand regaining the top spot among destinations [3] - The customer demographic for outbound travel is diversifying, with students making up 23%, families with children over 20%, and seniors at 18%, indicating a shift towards longer and more differentiated travel experiences [3]