Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-11 06:59Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) saw a more than 4% increase in stock price, reaching 60.7 HKD with a trading volume of 517 million HKD [1] - Lithium carbonate main contract rose over 8% to 149,000 RMB/ton, indicating a significant price increase in the lithium market [1] - UBS believes the market has entered a third lithium price supercycle, with a persistent supply-demand gap supporting prices significantly above market consensus [1] Group 2 - UBS has raised its 2026 lithium spodumene price forecast by 74% to 3,131 USD/ton and lithium carbonate to 26,000 USD/ton, driven by the electric vehicle sector achieving "triple parity" and surging energy storage demand [1] - Global lithium demand is expected to double to 3.4 million tons by 2030 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium recently released a performance forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 to 1.65 billion RMB for 2025, indicating a turnaround from losses [1] Group 3 - Dongwu Securities reported that lithium salt shipments in Q4 2025 are expected to remain stable, with price increases contributing to profit elasticity [1] - For 2026, Ganfeng Lithium's lithium salt shipment volume is projected to reach 210,000 tons, a 25% year-on-year increase, with self-supply resources estimated at 130,000 to 140,000 tons [1] - Assuming a lithium carbonate price of 150,000 RMB/ton, the company could contribute over 9 billion RMB in profit [1]