光纤，会是下一个存储吗？

Core Viewpoint - The fiber optic cable industry is experiencing a significant turning point due to supply constraints being exacerbated by AI demand, leading to price increases and longer delivery times [1][9]. Demand Side - The core demand increase is driven by AI data centers and data center interconnect (DCI), with global demand for fiber optic cables expected to rise by 75.9% year-on-year by 2025 [3][13]. - AI-driven scenarios are projected to increase the share of fiber demand from less than 5% in 2024 to 35% by 2027 [3]. - The demand for fiber optics in AI data centers is significantly higher, with a single AI data center requiring several times more fiber than traditional data centers [13]. Supply Side - The supply of fiber optics is rigid due to long production cycles for preform rods, which take 2 to 3 years to expand capacity [8]. - The production capacity is shifting towards high-demand, high-margin products, leading to a structural imbalance where traditional fiber capacity is being squeezed [8][10]. - Major manufacturers are prioritizing production of high-profit products over conventional G.652D fibers, resulting in a shortage of traditional fiber optics [8]. Price Trends - Prices for G.652D fibers are expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating a price increase to 24.0 to 25.0 yuan per core kilometer by the end of 2025, and potentially exceeding 30 yuan per core kilometer in early 2026 [9]. - The price increase is driven by supply shortages and longer delivery times, with some manufacturers unable to meet orders and turning to external sourcing [9]. Market Dynamics - The fiber optic market is transitioning from a telecommunications cycle to a data center cycle, influenced by AI's demand for ultra-high bandwidth and low-latency transmission [13]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards high-end products, including hollow-core fibers, which are gaining traction due to their advantages in low latency and high capacity [14][16]. Export Opportunities - The export of fiber optic products is becoming a significant growth point, with a reported 6.5% increase in exports in December 2025, and a 41.8% increase in export value [16]. - Major contracts, such as the $60 billion supply agreement between Corning and Meta, highlight the increasing demand and potential for growth in the fiber optic sector [16]. Investment Outlook - The fiber optic industry is seen as having a high short-term success rate, driven by AI demand and supply constraints, but faces challenges related to valuation and sustainability [17][20]. - The ability of the fiber optic sector to replicate the success seen in the storage market will depend on price increases, supply bottlenecks, and the successful introduction of high-end products into North American markets [20].