Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-11 07:30Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is experiencing significant price increases driven by AI demand, but there are warnings from companies like SMIC about potential overestimation of demand and supply chain disruptions in traditional sectors [1][3][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - DDR5 memory prices surged nearly 70% in a month, with SSD prices in Shenzhen doubling, leading to unusual trading practices like "buying memory with motherboards" [1] - Major semiconductor companies, including Samsung and SK Hynix, are projected to achieve record revenues in their storage businesses by 2025, while domestic module manufacturer Jiangbolong reported a 1994% increase in net profit [3] - SMIC's capacity utilization reached 95.8%, forcing delays in mobile phone orders to prioritize AI chip deliveries [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Issues - The price surge is attributed to unexpected capacity cuts by manufacturers like Micron in the consumer storage segment and structural shortages in HBM memory due to AI demand [3][5] - There is a panic-driven cycle of stockpiling within the industry, with DRAM modules being allocated through a "distribution system," marking a first in the industry [3][5] - Smartphone manufacturers like Xiaomi and OPPO are facing DRAM inventory shortages of less than three weeks, leading to price increases of 100-400 yuan for new models [3][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current situation is expected to lead to a reduction in orders for PMICs and display drivers, which are key products for SMIC, as smartphone manufacturers struggle with storage shortages [5] - TrendForce has revised down its 2026 smartphone shipment forecasts, indicating that the high prices are negatively impacting the end market [5] - SMIC predicts that the current high-price environment will not last, warning of potential overcapacity as demand from end-users is suppressed [7][9]