Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-11 07:35Group 1 - The dry bulk shipping market is at the beginning of a new cycle, with supply showing bottom characteristics and demand expected to recover by early 2026 as global manufacturing PMI returns above 50, alongside potential fiscal expansion and interest rate cuts [1] - The global order book for dry bulk ships is at a historical low, and new deliveries are expected to decline due to competition from higher-value vessels like container ships and LNG carriers [1] - The demand for bulk commodities is anticipated to improve, particularly with the continued increase in shipments from the West Australian iron ore region [1] Group 2 - Different ship types exhibit significant differences in earnings elasticity, with Capesize vessels showing the highest elasticity, increasing TCE by approximately $1,274 per day for every 100-point rise in the BDI index, while smaller vessels see a TCE increase of around $800 per day [2] - Companies with a higher proportion of large vessels are expected to have stronger profit potential during industry upcycles, while those focusing on smaller vessels may prioritize operational stability and defensiveness [2] - Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK.US) has diversified its fleet and maintains low average costs, providing a safety net during downturns and the ability to capitalize on market trends during upturns [2] Group 3 - Himalaya Shipping (HSHP.US) has a fleet composed entirely of Newcastlemax and scrubber/LNG vessels, maintaining a market premium of around 40%, making it a key focus for potential earnings elasticity in a rising BDI cycle [3] - Genko Shipping Trade (GNK.US), SafeBulkers (SB.US), and Pacific Shipping (02423) have relatively low leverage and balanced ship configurations, providing strong defensiveness during market downturns, making them suitable for investors seeking low volatility [3]