集采压价、存货积压、转型迟缓 珍宝岛研发投入“节衣缩食”却持续大额分红

Core Viewpoint - The traditional Chinese medicine company Zhenbaodao Pharmaceutical is expected to report a net loss of between 1.012 billion and 1.173 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking its first annual loss since its listing in 2015, nearly erasing the total net profit from the previous three years [1][10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue peaked at 4.219 billion yuan in 2022 but plummeted by 25.5% to 3.144 billion yuan in 2023, with a further decline of 13.84% to 2.707 billion yuan in 2024, falling below 2018 levels. In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue dropped by 54.73% to only 919 million yuan, indicating a trend towards a historical low for the year [2][11] - The net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, turned negative for the first time in 2022, with a loss of 280 million yuan. Although the loss narrowed to 31.84 million yuan in 2023, the downward trend continued, with an expected loss of between 1.073 billion and 1.234 billion yuan in 2025 [4][13] Asset Structure and Risks - The company faces significant asset structure risks, with accounts receivable reaching 3.111 billion yuan by the end of September 2025, while revenue for the same period was only 919 million yuan, resulting in a ratio of accounts receivable to revenue of 338.52%. This ratio has been on the rise in recent years [4][13] - Inventory levels surged from 1.005 billion yuan in Q3 2023 to 1.521 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a more than 50% year-on-year increase, indicating severe sales obstacles and inventory accumulation issues [4][13] Operational Efficiency - The company's operational efficiency has deteriorated, with inventory turnover days and accounts receivable turnover days reaching historical highs of 692.31 days and 919.37 days, respectively, more than doubling compared to the previous year [5][14] Impairment Losses - Zhenbaodao plans to recognize approximately 395 million yuan in credit impairment losses and about 266 million yuan in asset impairment losses, with these combined losses exceeding 660 million yuan, significantly impacting annual performance [7][16] Business Challenges - Core products have been included in the national centralized procurement of traditional Chinese medicine, coupled with increased pressure from national medical insurance cost control, leading to significant price reductions. The anticipated volume increase through price reductions has not materialized, resulting in a decline in both volume and price [7][16] Research and Development - Despite attempts to explore new growth avenues, the company has significantly reduced R&D investments, with R&D expenses dropping by 52.64% to 37.99 million yuan in 2024, accounting for only 2.60% of revenue, far below industry leaders [8][17] - The company announced plans to invest over 400 million yuan in building an R&D platform for innovative drugs, but actual investment progress has been slow, with only 92.17 million yuan spent by mid-2025, representing 26.26% of the planned investment [8][17] Dividend Policy and Governance Issues - Zhenbaodao has maintained a rigid cash dividend policy, distributing a total of 1.302 billion yuan since its listing, despite deteriorating fundamentals. In 2023 and 2024, the company distributed 188 million yuan and 141 million yuan, respectively [9][18] - The concentrated ownership structure raises concerns, as the largest beneficiary of dividends is the controlling shareholder, with a high pledge ratio of 81% for the controlling shareholder's equity, increasing financial risks [9][18] - Governance issues were highlighted by a lack of proper procedures in a significant 425 million yuan subsidiary equity transfer, exposing internal control deficiencies [10][19] Conclusion - Zhenbaodao Pharmaceutical is facing severe challenges due to industry changes, internal governance issues, and actions by major shareholders, necessitating a balance between short-term returns and long-term development to restore fundamentals and rebuild market trust [10][19]