Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-11 07:56Core Viewpoint - The core reason for the electricity shortage in the U.S. is the continuous increase in capital expenditure expectations for data centers, leading to a significant upward revision of peak load growth forecasts for summer from 64GW in 2024 to 166GW in 2025 by GridStrategies [2] Group 1: Electricity Shortage Causes - The mismatch between capital expenditure expectations for data centers and actual demand, as well as the mismatch between actual demand and infrastructure capacity, creates uncertainty in the actual deployment pace of data centers [2] - The projected capacity of data center reserve projects in the U.S. has reached 245GW as of mid-October 2025, which will lead to increased peak load as data centers continue to operate [3] Group 2: Future Power Supply and Load Gap - The future new power installations in the U.S. will primarily be gas-fired, with the EIA estimating an addition of 7GW of gas power installations in 2026-2030 under current project plans, while other stable power sources will see no new additions [3] - Different scenarios for the pace of data center construction indicate varying load gaps by 2030, ranging from 2GW to 157GW, depending on whether regulatory power sources are considered [4] Group 3: Regional Load Growth Characteristics - The growth in peak load will be concentrated in areas with dense data center construction, particularly in ERCOT and PJM regions, driven by data center demand [5] - In PJM, the summer peak load is expected to rise from 156GW in 2026 to 222GW in 2036, with a significant drop in power reserve margins leading to a surge in capacity prices [6] - ERCOT's summer peak load is projected to grow from 87GW in 2025 to 138GW in 2030, with a focus on enhancing power system reliability through the construction of storage and gas-fired power sources [7] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - In the context of high market demand for gas turbines, there are bottlenecks in production capacity among leading overseas gas turbine companies, suggesting a favorable outlook for Chinese companies like Dongfang Electric and Shanghai Electric [8] - The increasing demand for U.S. power grid infrastructure presents opportunities in the transformer segment, with companies like Jinpan Technology and Siyi Electric being highlighted [8] - The short-term effectiveness of storage solutions in enhancing power system reliability points to investment potential in companies like Sungrow Power and Canadian Solar [8]