化工板块现积极信号，细分领域提价潮起，化工ETF国泰（516220）涨超2%

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a revival, with price increases in various subcategories such as dyes, PVA, and vitamins, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [2][3][10] Short-term Logic - The influx of capital into the chemical sector reflects market expectations of a turning point, supported by stable core costs like oil and coal prices, which provide a clear bottom support for chemical product prices [4][10] - The stabilization of raw material costs is crucial for the midstream chemical industry, as it narrows profit volatility and clarifies price support [4][6] Medium to Long-term Perspective - The chemical industry is undergoing significant changes in supply and demand dynamics, driven by domestic "anti-involution" policies and global capacity restructuring, leading to a shift from simple cyclical fluctuations to a combination of cyclical recovery and growth premium [5][6] - A profound "Supply-side Reform 2.0" is underway, with policies accelerating the elimination of outdated capacity and enhancing the competitive landscape among leading companies [6][10] Demand Dynamics - Traditional downstream sectors face pressure, but sectors like automotive and home appliances are expected to improve marginally due to policy support [7] - Emerging industries such as semiconductors and renewable energy are driving new demand, creating a "second curve" of growth for the chemical sector [7][10] Investment Mapping - The Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) offers a convenient way for investors to gain exposure to the chemical sector, capturing both cyclical recovery and structural upgrade benefits [8][9] - The ETF includes leading companies benefiting from "anti-involution" and global capacity restructuring, providing significant profit elasticity during industry recoveries [9] - The ETF's diversified approach mitigates risks associated with individual stocks and allows investors to capitalize on overall industry trends [9][10]