美国最后通牒施压！乌克兰拟于5月举行公投

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine is planning to hold presidential elections and a referendum on any peace agreement with Russia, amid pressure from the U.S. government to finalize peace negotiations by mid-May [2][3]. Group 1: Political Context - The U.S. has urged Ukraine to conduct key votes by May 15, or risk losing proposed security guarantees [2]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky aims to announce the election and referendum plans on February 24, marking the fourth anniversary of the conflict [2][3]. - There is significant pressure from the U.S. to conclude peace talks by June, coinciding with the upcoming U.S. midterm elections [2][3]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Support - Despite a decline in public support for Zelensky due to war fatigue and corruption scandals, there remains a strong desire among Ukrainians to tie the elections to his re-election [3][5]. - Polls indicate that while support for Zelensky is still considerable, it has decreased from nearly unanimous levels four years ago [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - The feasibility of holding elections is complicated by ongoing conflict, with significant logistical challenges and the potential for Russian aggression disrupting the process [4][5]. - Experts warn that conducting elections under wartime conditions could undermine their legitimacy, especially if security guarantees are not in place [5][6]. - The Ukrainian parliament is expected to work on legal amendments necessary for voting under wartime conditions in March and April [4]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Zelensky's team has indicated a willingness to meet the U.S. timeline, despite the logistical hurdles of holding elections in a conflict zone [3][4]. - Holding simultaneous elections and a referendum could potentially increase voter turnout and ensure a more favorable outcome for Zelensky [5].