Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) 智通财经网·2026-02-11 08:45Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that the reduction of production quotas in Indonesia and the recovery of overseas steel demand may reshape the global coal supply-demand landscape, potentially raising the price center of coal. The firm is optimistic about the upward trend in coal prices, projecting a price center for thermal coal to rise to 800-850 CNY/ton, with the coking coal/thermal coal price ratio increasing to approximately 2.5 times, and the price center for coking coal to rise to around 2000 CNY/ton, within a range of 1500-2500 CNY/ton, maintaining an "optimistic" rating for the industry. The firm suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and flexible coking coal companies [1]. Group 1 - Domestic coal inventory is declining: As of February 5, 2026, the total social inventory is 162.07 million tons, down 10.3% from the beginning of the year and down 2.9% year-on-year; coking coal inventory is 29.65 million tons, up 5.2% from the beginning of the year and down 5.5% year-on-year. The intermediate links have seen a significant decrease, with port and mine inventories down 8.2% from the beginning of the year and down 10.4% year-on-year; coking coal port and mine inventories are down 5.7% from the beginning of the year and down 27.2% year-on-year [2]. - Indonesia plans to reduce production: The Indonesian government plans to cut coal production from 790 million tons in 2026 to approximately 600 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, primarily to stabilize international coal prices. Following this plan, some Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports [2]. - Domestic production cuts may continue: Reports indicate that in January 2026, due to insufficient implementation of coal supply tasks for 2024-2025, 26 out of 52 coal mines previously included in the capacity increase list in Yulin City were removed, involving a reduction of 19 million tons in capacity, which is expected to be realized in the off-season [3]. Group 2 - Safety regulations may tighten: With the upcoming Two Sessions in 2026, there is a continued emphasis on safety production control, and recent safety incidents in the chemical sector have raised industry awareness, likely leading to stricter safety regulations in coal mining [3]. - Overseas coal prices are generally inverted: Australian coking coal prices are significantly inverted compared to domestic prices. Due to Indonesia's planned production cuts, international thermal coal prices are rising, and the import advantage of Indonesian thermal coal is gradually diminishing. If the inversion continues, southern power plants may shift to purchasing coal from northern ports, where inventories are down year-on-year, leading to potential price increases [3]. - Historical data review: From 2015 to 2025, the coal sector and coking coal sector have consistently outperformed the CSI 300 index after the Spring Festival. In the month following the festival, the average increase for the coal/coking coal sector is 6.9%/9.2%, compared to 3.1% for the CSI 300 index; in the quarter following the festival, the average increase is 8%/9.6%, compared to 3.1% for the CSI 300 index; and in the half-year following the festival, the average increase is 10%/9%, compared to 1.3% for the CSI 300 index [3].