I Predicted Netflix Would Crush the S&P 500 From 2026 Through 2030, but It's Already Down 12% This Year. Is Netflix Still a Buy?

Core Viewpoint - The market remains skeptical about Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, leading to a significant decline in Netflix's stock price despite its strong financial performance and potential for growth [1][8]. Financial Performance - Netflix ended 2025 with a robust balance sheet, featuring $4.4 billion in long-term debt net of cash, $13.3 billion in operating income, and $11 billion in net income from $45.2 billion in revenue, resulting in an operating margin of 29.4% and a net profit margin of 24.3% [3][4]. - The company's earnings per share reached a record $2.53 in 2025, indicating strong profitability [4]. Valuation Changes - At its peak, Netflix traded at over 60 times trailing earnings and over 50 times forward earnings, but the recent sell-off has reduced its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to 32.5 and forward P/E to 26.3, making it less expensive compared to the S&P 500's forward P/E of 23.6 [5][7]. - The transition from a high-growth stock to a more reasonably priced asset has raised questions about investor confidence [7]. Acquisition Details - Netflix announced the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery for $27.75 per share, with an enterprise value of $82.7 billion, which includes $10.7 billion in net debt [9]. - The acquisition will increase Netflix's leverage as Warner Bros. carries more debt, and Netflix's decision to amend the deal to an all-cash transaction will require taking on additional debt [10]. Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to enhance Netflix's intellectual property and content library, potentially stabilizing HBO and HBO Max as streaming services [11]. - While the deal could lead to faster earnings growth, it poses risks to Netflix's historically high-margin, low-leverage business model, prompting some investors to consider selling [12]. Investment Perspective - For investors who believe in the strategic rationale behind the acquisition and Netflix's ability to manage the new debt, the current valuation presents a compelling buying opportunity [13]. - However, uncertainty surrounding the acquisition's impact on Netflix's business model may keep the stock under pressure until more clarity is provided [13].