2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2026-02-11 09:13Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of GF Securities, Guo Lei, predicts that China's economic growth will transition from a "two-wheel drive" model, primarily based on exports and "two new" sectors in 2025, to a "four-wheel drive" model by 2026, driven by policy efforts to tap into economic potential [1] Group 1: Policy Focus Areas - Fixed Asset Investment: The growth rate for fixed asset investment is projected to be -3.8% in 2025, with significant improvement expected in 2026. The policy aims to "stop the decline and stabilize," focusing on investments in major economic provinces, supported by a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool for projects [2] - Service Consumption: The policy emphasizes the need to "release the potential of service consumption," shifting the focus from goods consumption to addressing the shortfall in service consumption [2] - Real Estate Sector: The policy aims to "stabilize the real estate market," with a renewed focus on "de-stocking," indicating a shift towards improving sales to alleviate the negative impact on overall economic performance [2] - Traditional Manufacturing: The policy will continue to promote "anti-involution," targeting improvements in the competitive landscape of manufacturing, aiming to balance supply and demand, which will enhance market structure and price recovery, ultimately benefiting profit margins [2] Group 2: Economic Growth Outlook - After addressing the shortfalls, the "broad-based" nature of economic growth is expected to improve, leading to better performance across more industries, increased employment, higher household income, and improved corporate profits, which will eventually contribute to a recovery in microeconomic sentiment [2]