TrendForce集邦咨询：存储器涨势加剧终端售价压力 2026年全球手机产量或降至约11.35支

Group 1 - The estimated contract price for mainstream memory capacity of 8GB+256GB is expected to rise nearly 200% in Q1 2026 compared to the same period in 2025 [1] - The BOM cost share of memory in smartphones has increased from approximately 10-15% to 30-40% [1] - TrendForce suggests that raising terminal prices has become a necessary choice for maintaining operations, prompting brands to adjust product mix or configurations in response to the ongoing surge in memory prices [1] Group 2 - Samsung, as the leading smartphone brand and a major player in the memory industry, is expected to see a decline in production volume due to overall market weakness, although the reduction will be less severe [1] - Apple, with a higher proportion of high-end models, is better positioned to absorb rising memory costs and has a consumer base more accepting of price adjustments, providing some support for its production performance [1] - Transsion, with a higher proportion of low-end models, is expected to face significant production cuts due to its sensitivity to cost fluctuations and the price sensitivity of its target customers [1] Group 3 - Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi, and Honor will face not only memory cost pressures in 2026 but also competition from Huawei, which is focusing on promoting its HarmonyOS platform and has a relatively flexible pricing strategy [2] - TrendForce predicts that Huawei may experience the smallest production adjustment among brands and could even see growth despite the challenges [2] - The current decline in terminal sales, triggered by rising memory prices, is compounded by the fact that most electronic devices are sufficiently functional to meet consumer needs, leading to decreased replacement demand and extended upgrade cycles [2]