Robinhood CEO Says Prediction Markets Are Entering a ‘Supercycle’

Core Insights - Robinhood's CEO Vlad Tenev highlighted that prediction markets are the company's fastest-growing segment, with potential to "drive trillions in annual volume over time" [1][7] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has withdrawn its proposed rulemaking on event contracts and will pursue a new regulatory approach [4][7] Expansion of Prediction Markets - Robinhood is actively expanding event contracts within its app and is developing market infrastructure through Rothera, a joint venture with Susquehanna aimed at operating a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse [2][5] - Tenev reported that over 12 billion prediction market contracts were traded on Robinhood in 2025, with more than 4 billion contracts traded in 2026 so far [3][7] Regulatory Developments - The CFTC's withdrawal of the proposed rules on event contracts, effective February 4, 2026, indicates a shift in regulatory focus [4][7] - The agency has also withdrawn a sports-related event contracts advisory and plans to advance new rulemaking [4] Market Infrastructure and Future Outlook - The establishment of Rothera is part of Robinhood's strategy to enhance its prediction markets, with control over execution and clearing expected to influence pricing and compliance [5] - The prediction markets are showing signs of scaling beyond niche audiences, indicating a growing interest in this segment [6]