Ge Long Hui·2026-02-11 10:05Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has identified a structural supply constraint in the global commodity market, leading to a revaluation of strategic metals like gold, copper, and lithium, with Zijin Mining receiving a dual buy rating for its A/H shares, targeting prices of 50 CNY and 52 HKD respectively [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global commodity market is entering a phase of supply constraints, driven by declining resource grades and geopolitical interventions, which is prompting a revaluation of strategic metals [1][3]. - Gold is viewed as a solid long-term investment due to ongoing central bank purchases and its role as a hedge against geopolitical tensions and inflation, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 gold price target to 5,400 USD/oz [4][5]. - The copper market is expected to face a supply gap of 330,000 tons by 2026, influenced by strikes in key producing countries and increasing demand from the renewable energy and AI sectors [7][8]. Group 2: Zijin Mining's Position - Zijin Mining is strategically positioned in the copper, gold, and lithium markets, aligning well with the current industry revaluation trends [3]. - The company has ambitious production targets for 2026, aiming for 1.2 million tons of copper, 105 tons of gold, and 120,000 tons of lithium, reflecting significant year-on-year increases [9][17]. - Zijin Mining's cost control measures, including advanced mining techniques, have resulted in lower production costs compared to industry averages, enhancing its competitive edge [12][13]. Group 3: Future Growth and Projections - Zijin Mining's projected return on equity (ROE) for 2026 is expected to reach 36%, indicating strong growth potential and profitability stability [16]. - The company plans to significantly increase its gold and lithium production by 2028, with gold output targets raised to 130-140 tons and lithium production expected to reach 270,000-320,000 tons, marking a tenfold increase from 2025 [17][18]. - The overall supply tightness in copper, gold, and lithium markets is anticipated to persist, supporting the company's growth trajectory and performance in the coming years [18].