特朗普号令50国成立稀土联盟，中国又有一场“硬仗”要打？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical implications of the "anti-China rare earth alliance" initiated by Trump, highlighting the challenges and limitations faced by this coalition in effectively countering China's dominance in the rare earth industry [1][3][19]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - In February 2026, a "resource conference" in Washington led by Trump aimed to create an alliance among over 50 countries to reduce reliance on China for key minerals [1]. - The U.S. administration's approach mirrors past strategies used against China's semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors, now targeting rare earths [3]. Group 2: Challenges of the Alliance - The alliance quickly showed signs of disunity, with countries like South Korea emphasizing continued cooperation with China, and others like Canada taking a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The internal contradictions within the U.S. government and the varying interests of allied nations hinder the effectiveness of this coalition [5][19]. Group 3: China's Competitive Advantages - China has achieved a significant technological edge in rare earth processing, with a purity level of 99.9999% compared to the U.S.'s best at 99.9% [7]. - The cost of refining rare earths in China is significantly lower, at approximately $4 per kilogram, while U.S. costs range from $10 to $15, often delayed by environmental regulations [7][12]. Group 4: Full Supply Chain Integration - China is the only country capable of completing the entire rare earth supply chain, from mining to processing to end-use applications, built over decades [10][12]. - The integration of by-products from other industries in China provides a cost advantage that is difficult for Western countries to replicate [12]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Economic Implications - Countries heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths, such as Japan, face significant cost increases if they attempt to "decouple" from China, potentially raising prices by over 60% [14]. - The article suggests that the real challenge for the U.S. is managing internal budget constraints and the economic pain associated with transitioning away from Chinese supplies [14][16]. Group 6: Strategic Recommendations - China should maintain a rational market image while enhancing its refining capabilities and recycling efficiency to safeguard its position in the global supply chain [17]. - The focus should be on protecting technological advancements and ensuring the stability of the industrial chain [16][19].