Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-11 11:02Group 1 - Global economic conditions remain divergent, with the Eurozone and Japan expected to see economic improvements in Q4 due to stable internal demand and recovering exports, while the US economy is projected to slow down due to a cooling labor market and declining investment growth [1] - The US labor market is showing signs of cooling, with GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 recorded at -0.6%, 3.8%, and 4.3%, respectively, influenced by significant fluctuations in net exports [3] - The US inflation rate unexpectedly dropped from 3% in September to 2.7% in November, exceeding market expectations and leading to increased market anticipation for interest rate cuts [6] Group 2 - The US dollar index is expected to experience a short-term rebound in early 2026, but the overall trend may remain volatile due to mixed market sentiments and the impact of US economic data [9][10] - The Euro is anticipated to maintain a high-level fluctuation in early 2026, supported by a narrowing interest rate differential with the US and potential geopolitical events affecting market stability [13] - The Japanese yen is likely to remain within an upward channel, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and market risk sentiment [15] Group 3 - The Malaysian ringgit is projected to appreciate against the US dollar, supported by stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate, despite a slight decline in trade surplus [22][23] - The South African rand is expected to show a "strong oscillation" pattern in 2026, driven by internal economic improvements and external factors such as US interest rate cuts and commodity price increases [46][47]