布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：戴利指出美联储降息条件与劳动力市场隐忧

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, indicated that the U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may need to implement one or two additional rate cuts in the future [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Daly expressed support for the recent decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% but emphasized the need for a "very open mind" regarding future rate adjustments [3]. - She stated that any decision to lower rates must be based on strong confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward trajectory, despite current inflation indicators remaining above the 2% target [3]. - The need for rate cuts is also contingent on deep concerns regarding challenges in the labor market, which may be more severe than current data suggests [3]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - The current unemployment rate in the U.S. is stable at 4.4%, but Daly noted underlying vulnerabilities in the labor market [5]. - She assessed that while risks between price stability and maximum employment appear balanced, vulnerabilities lean more towards the labor market side, with potential for increased layoffs if expected demand does not materialize [5]. - Daly highlighted the difficulties faced by young job seekers, noting that recent data shows the unemployment rate for recent college graduates is higher than the overall labor force level, indicating instability in the job market [5]. Group 3: Internal Federal Reserve Dynamics - Analyst from Bumi Putera Beijing Investment Fund noted that Daly personally leans towards supporting further rate cuts, although she cannot specify whether it would be one or two cuts [7]. - As a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, Daly will still participate in all regular policy discussions, reflecting ongoing assessments of economic balance risks within the Federal Reserve [7].