油价日内涨超2%，报道：特朗普私下考虑退出《美墨加协定》

Core Viewpoint - The potential withdrawal of the United States from the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is being evaluated by President Trump, creating significant uncertainty in the ongoing negotiations among the three countries, which cover approximately $2 trillion in trade and services [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - The current negotiation landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with bilateral talks taking place, and Mexico being described as "quite pragmatic," while discussions with Canada are more challenging [2][4]. - The mandatory review deadline of July 1 is approaching, which could lead to either a 16-year extension of the agreement or trigger a ten-year annual review mechanism until 2036 if no consensus is reached [4]. - Trump has pressured both Canada and Mexico for concessions beyond trade, including issues related to immigration and national defense, indicating a preference for bilateral agreements [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Any move to exit the agreement could destabilize one of the world's largest trade relationships, potentially leading to the re-establishment of tariff barriers and increased inflationary pressures [2][6]. - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and lawmakers are likely to oppose any withdrawal, as higher tariffs could exacerbate inflation and affordability issues, particularly sensitive ahead of the midterm elections [6]. Group 3: Trump's Negotiation Strategy - Trump's inquiries to advisors about the potential exit reflect his negotiation style, which often uses threats as leverage to secure better deals rather than indicating a definitive intention to withdraw [7]. - Despite previously being a negotiator for the agreement, Trump's views on North American trade relations have shifted, leading to unpredictability in his approach [7].