没那么简单！别把金饰困境完全归结于金价

Core Insights - The gold market has experienced unprecedented changes in 2025, leading to a tumultuous start in 2026 [1] - Global gold jewelry consumption fell by 18% year-on-year to 1,532 tons in 2025, marking the lowest share of total gold demand at 32.8% [1][3] - The decline in jewelry demand indicates a significant shift in the traditional and stable pillars of gold demand [3] Jewelry Demand - The share of gold jewelry in total demand dropped below one-third for the first time, reflecting a long-anticipated trend due to soaring gold prices [4] - Despite the decline in volume, the total sales value of gold and silver jewelry increased by 12.8% year-on-year, indicating that the revenue growth was outpaced by the rise in gold prices [4] - In 2025, investment demand for gold surged to 2,175 tons, accounting for 43.5% of total demand, compared to 1,185 tons and 25.6% in 2024 [4][5] Investment Demand - The increase in gold prices has negatively impacted jewelry demand but has been beneficial for gold investment, which reached a new high, exceeding the previous record of 1,805 tons in 2020 by over 20% [5] - The gap between jewelry consumption and investment demand widened to over 600 tons in 2025, marking a significant shift in market dynamics [5] Price Trends - Gold prices have risen approximately 245% over three years, reaching a peak of $5,583 per ounce before a significant correction in January 2026 [6] - Historical comparisons show that previous gold price surges did not suppress jewelry demand as severely as seen in 2025, indicating a complex relationship between price and demand [6] Structural Changes - The current situation reflects a structural adjustment in gold market demand, redistributing gold's monetary and commodity attributes [7] - High-end jewelry markets remain stable due to less price sensitivity, while lower-quality gold products are gaining popularity, leading to a bifurcation in consumer preferences [7] - The entry of investors into the market coincides with a decline in consumer demand, highlighting a major change in the gold market landscape in 2025 [7]