大超预期！美国1月非农新增13万人，3月降息无望？

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market showed significant growth in January, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000, surpassing market expectations of 70,000, marking the largest increase since April 2025 [2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, slightly below the expected 4.4%, reaching the lowest level since August 2025 [3] Employment Data - The healthcare sector led job growth in December, adding 82,000 positions, while social assistance also saw an increase of 42,000 jobs, contributing nearly all net new jobs [6] - The construction industry added 33,000 jobs after a year of sluggish growth, while federal government employment decreased by 34,000 due to layoffs from efficiency cuts [6] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the market estimate of 0.3%, and increased by 3.7% year-over-year [7] Labor Participation - The labor force participation rate increased from 62.4% to 62.5%, slightly better than expected [8] - The youth unemployment rate dropped to 13.6%, with slight improvements in unemployment rates among adult men (3.8%), adult women (4.0%), and various ethnic groups [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the end of January, with indications that they may continue to hold rates steady in March, despite some members advocating for a rate cut [9][10] - As of February 10, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in March is 94%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is only 6% [10]