Novo Nordisk(US:NVO) ZACKS·2026-02-11 15:55Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter and full-year results, driven by its semaglutide-based drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, which are projected to generate DKK 206.2 billion in 2025, including DKK 53.7 billion in Q4 [1] - The company faces declining growth due to increased competition from Eli Lilly (LLY), compounded semaglutide use in the U.S., pricing pressures, and foreign exchange headwinds [2] Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk's 2026 guidance indicates a potential decline in sales and operating profit by 5-13% at constant exchange rates (CER), excluding a one-off $4.2 billion reversal of U.S. 340B rebate provisions [5] - The company expects flat sales and modest operating profit growth on a reported basis, highlighting a weaker underlying outlook once non-recurring benefits are excluded [5] Market Dynamics - Growth in International Operations is anticipated to be offset by rising competition, pricing pressures, and losses in semaglutide exclusivity [6] - In the U.S., slowing prescriptions, reduced Medicaid obesity coverage, and lower realized prices are negatively impacting expectations [6] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound have become significant revenue drivers, generating combined sales of $36.5 billion in 2025, which is about 56% of the company's total revenues [8] - Lilly is also preparing to enter the oral obesity treatment market with its candidate orforglipron, currently under FDA review [8] Stock Performance - Over the past six months, Novo Nordisk shares have declined by 1.3%, underperforming the industry, sector, and S&P 500, which saw a growth of 33.4% [11] - The company's shares are trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 14.75, lower than the industry average of 18.65 and significantly below its five-year mean of 29.25 [14] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for 2026 have decreased from $3.55 to $3.27 per share, while 2027 estimates have dropped from $3.65 to $3.30 [16]