Progressive Corporation Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

Core Viewpoint - The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has significantly underperformed the broader market and its peers in the property and casualty insurance sector over the past year, despite reporting positive quarterly earnings results. Group 1: Company Overview - The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company based in Mayfield Village, Ohio, with a market capitalization of $118.6 billion, offering various insurance products including personal and commercial auto, property, and specialty property-casualty insurance [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - PGR shares have declined by 19.6% over the past year, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by nearly 15.6% during the same period [2]. - Year-to-date in 2026, PGR stock is down 11.5%, contrasting with a 1.7% rise in the S&P 500 Index [2]. - Compared to the Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Insurance ETF, which gained about 5.8% over the past year, PGR's performance remains weak [3]. Group 3: Financial Results - On January 28, PGR reported Q4 results with an EPS of $4.45, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 12.1%, and adjusted revenue of $22.5 billion, surpassing Wall Street's expectations of $21.9 billion [5]. Group 4: Analyst Expectations - For the current fiscal year ending in December, analysts project PGR's EPS to decline by 11.1% to $16.23 on a diluted basis [6]. - Among 25 analysts covering PGR, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with a mix of ratings including eight "Strong Buy," two "Moderate Buy," 13 "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and one "Strong Sell" [6]. - Citigroup analyst Matthew Heimermann maintained a "Buy" rating on PGR, lowering the price target to $261, indicating a potential upside of 29.5% from current levels [7].