今年首月理财“开门红”缺席

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management market in January 2026 did not experience the traditional "opening red" seasonality, with a decrease in scale instead of growth, indicating a structural adjustment period ahead for the market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the banking wealth management market saw a decline of 178.8 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 33.18 trillion yuan, which is a month-on-month decrease of 1.142 trillion yuan [3]. - The decline in January is notable as it contrasts with the seasonal growth observed in previous years, except for the significant drop in 2023 due to a "redemption wave" [3]. - Among the 14 wealth management companies with over 1 trillion yuan in management scale, the total scale decreased by approximately 122.2 billion yuan, marking a second consecutive month of decline [3]. Group 2: Product Issuance and Performance - The issuance of new wealth management products decreased, with 2,533 new products launched in January, down by 305 from the previous month [4]. - The average performance benchmark for newly issued products slightly decreased by 0.01 to 0.02 percentage points, with open-ended and closed-end products yielding 1.82% and 2.36%, respectively [4]. - Despite the scale decline, the net value of pure debt wealth management products maintained positive growth, although the growth rate has narrowed [4]. Group 3: Reasons for Scale Reduction - The decline in January's wealth management scale is attributed to several factors, including the inertia of the year-end return effect and increased cash demand from residents as the Spring Festival approaches [6]. - Banks' internal resource allocation has shifted focus towards loan and deposit marketing, which has temporarily weakened wealth management sales [6]. - Market sentiment has also shifted, with some funds reallocating towards equity assets due to improved stock market conditions [6]. Group 4: Institutional Responses - Wealth management companies are adjusting by reducing fees to enhance product competitiveness, with some institutions lowering management and service fees to zero for certain products [8]. - There is a noticeable acceleration in product innovation, with companies exploring diverse strategies to enhance returns, such as participating in A-share IPOs and launching new multi-asset products [8]. - The trend of refined management is emerging, with companies considering third-party valuation tools to smooth net value fluctuations and developing regular dividend products to enhance investor experience [9]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, predicting a potential rebound of approximately 1 trillion yuan in February, with an overall annual growth forecast of around 3 trillion yuan [9]. - The release of maturing deposits and sustained low deposit rates are expected to channel funds into wealth management and insurance products [9]. - However, it is noted that deposits remain the primary choice for residents, indicating that growth in the wealth management market may stem more from structural shifts rather than an overall increase in risk appetite [9].