美国会预算办公室：特朗普财政路径不可持续，未来十年美赤字预期提高1.4万亿美元

Core Viewpoint - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, raising the ten-year deficit forecast by $1.4 trillion, influenced by President Trump's tax and immigration policies [1] Group 1: Deficit Projections - CBO's report indicates that Trump's tax plan, introduced in July 2022, is expected to increase the deficit by $4.7 trillion over the next decade [1] - The costs associated with immigration enforcement are projected to add $500 billion to the deficit [1] - The estimated revenue from increased tariffs is expected to reduce the deficit by $3 trillion, contingent on the stability of U.S. trade policies [1] Group 2: Interest Expenditures and Economic Growth - Net interest expenditures are anticipated to rise from $1 trillion in 2026 to $2.1 trillion by 2036 due to high debt levels and increasing average interest rates [2] - CBO forecasts that the deficit as a percentage of GDP will increase from 5.5% to 5.8% in 2026, with projections reaching 6% by 2028 and 6.7% by 2036, significantly above the historical average of 3.8% [2][3] - The CBO does not believe that the combination of tax cuts, increased tariffs, and deregulation will lead to stronger economic growth, with GDP growth expected to average below the targeted 3% [2] Group 3: Debt and Interest Rate Outlook - The CBO has delayed the forecast for the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching a new high of 107% from 2029 to 2030, primarily due to rising interest expenditures and increased spending on social programs [3] - Despite high debt levels, the CBO does not expect significant changes in government borrowing costs, projecting a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from an average of 4.1% this year to 4.4% between 2031 and 2036 [3] Group 4: Inflation and Employment - CBO anticipates inflation will eventually return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, averaging 2.7% this year and dropping to 2.3% in 2027, influenced by higher tariffs [5] - The unemployment rate is expected to average 4.6% in 2026 [5]