亚太发展中经济体提升内生增长动能（国际视点）

Core Insights - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecast for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region to 4.6% for 2026, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates, supported by stable economic fundamentals and a favorable investment environment [1] Economic Growth Projections - East Asia's economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 4.6% and 4.1% respectively, with overall inflation remaining moderate [1] - Southeast Asia is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, with Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam showing strong growth, particularly Indonesia exceeding 5% and Vietnam over 8% in 2025 [1] Factors Driving Growth - The positive economic momentum in the Asia-Pacific region is attributed to effective growth policies in developing economies, a shift from traditional industries to emerging sectors, and a rebound in external demand for electronic products and industrial goods [2] - The tourism sector is recovering rapidly, with the region expected to welcome 331 million international visitors in 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year [2] Investment Trends - Despite global investment challenges, the Asia-Pacific region is seeing a significant increase in investment in high-tech industries and digital infrastructure, with AI-related trade surging and contributing nearly two-thirds of global growth in this sector [2] - Digital service trade, including telemedicine, online education, and fintech, is emerging as a new growth driver, with double-digit growth expected in digital delivery service exports by 2025 [2] Regional Integration and Trade - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has significantly attracted foreign direct investment, accounting for over 30% of global investment in regional cooperation mechanisms [3] - Trade between China and ASEAN has increased by 8.5% in the first 11 months of 2025, bolstering regional collaboration and resilience against external uncertainties [3] Policy Responses - Southeast Asian countries are implementing policy measures, such as interest rate cuts and digital economy initiatives, to stimulate domestic consumption and counter external risks [4] - Malaysia aims to increase the digital economy's share of GDP to 25.5% by 2030, while Indonesia is enhancing digital finance access for over 56 million users [4] - The integration of digital technologies with the real economy is expected to enhance productivity and strengthen regional competitive advantages [4]