商品板块轮动 现在到哪个阶段了？

Core Insights - The commodity market is transitioning from a "broad increase" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][3] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy (crude oil, coal) has become a defining feature of the current market [3][4] - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a unique combination of financial and strategic attributes, driven by structural narratives rather than traditional economic growth [7][12] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship for green metals is tight due to rigid supply and explosive demand, while traditional energy faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [3][4] - The global supply chain is shifting from "efficiency-first" globalization to "security-first" regionalization, impacting commodity pricing and availability [4][20] - Recent price movements, such as a 30% increase in LME copper prices in January 2026, reflect the new characteristics of the market [4] Historical Context - The current commodity cycle shows similarities to the 1970s, with a focus on the restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions [11][12] - The previous commodity supercycle was driven by China's industrialization and urbanization, while the current cycle is influenced by AI infrastructure and green transitions [7][12] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamental differences among commodities to identify structural opportunities [4][13] - Key commodities to watch include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [15][24] - The chemical sector is anticipated to see growth due to domestic policy changes and supply optimization, with specific attention to products with strong export expectations [14] Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue exhibiting significant differentiation, with traditional rotation patterns being disrupted [13][24] - The focus on strategic resources like gold, silver, copper, and tin is likely to lead to a scenario where these commodities experience upward price pressure while others may lag [24]