齐盛期货：焦煤节前维持震荡格局

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with a high probability of maintaining a fluctuating pattern before the holiday. After the holiday, there are risks of a decline due to rapid supply recovery, slow demand recovery, and seasonal destocking pressures [1][5]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic coking coal supply is experiencing a phase of contraction, with some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong resuming production after maintenance. However, this increase is temporary and not sustainable. As the Spring Festival approaches, more local coal mines are expected to stop production, leading to a tightening supply before the holiday [2]. - The import of Mongolian coking coal has decreased significantly, with daily customs clearance numbers dropping by 200 vehicles. The border crossings will temporarily close during the holiday, further reducing import volumes. The impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy on domestic coking coal supply is limited, as it primarily affects thermal coal [2]. Demand Side Summary - Downstream demand remains weak, with steel mills' average daily pig iron production slightly increasing to 2.2858 million tons. However, production expansion is constrained by maintenance schedules and inventory pressures. Steel mills are cautious in their procurement strategies due to moderate profitability [3]. - Coking plants have completed their pre-holiday restocking, leading to a slowdown in procurement activities. Many traders are also reducing their market activities as the holiday approaches, resulting in decreased market liquidity [3]. Futures Market Performance - The main coking coal futures contract has shown a range-bound trading pattern, with open interest declining from 532,700 contracts to 469,100 contracts, indicating reduced trading activity. Prices have fluctuated between 1,100 and 1,200 yuan per ton, with no significant driving factors for a one-sided market trend [4]. Outlook for Post-Holiday Market - After the holiday, there are risks of a decline in coking coal prices due to the rapid recovery of supply and the slower recovery of demand. Although there is a fundamental support for coking coal from the expected increase in pig iron production, seasonal destocking pressures may lead to price corrections [5].