基金早班车丨公募齐声看好持股过节，历史胜率与政策环境共振

Trading Insights - As the Spring Festival approaches, the focus on "holding stocks or cash" resurfaces, with multiple public funds suggesting that holding stocks during the holiday has a higher success rate based on historical data, policy environment, and capital flow analysis [1] - Institutions indicate that market volatility during the long holiday is manageable, and a spring rally is anticipated post-holiday, recommending maintaining a moderate position to capture potential "red envelope market" opportunities [1] - On February 11, A-shares showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 3.62 points (0.09%) at 4131.99 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 49.69 points (0.35%) to 14160.93 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 35.80 points (1.08%) to 3284.74 points; trading volume in both markets dropped below 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 31 trading days, with over 3200 stocks declining [1] Fund News - On February 11, no new funds were launched, while 13 funds distributed dividends, primarily bond funds, with the highest dividend payout from the Fuguo Tianfeng Enhanced Income Bond Fund at 0.1100 yuan per 10 shares [2] - Since February, broad-based ETFs have experienced net outflows, although at a slowing pace, while thematic industry ETFs showed internal differentiation; cross-border ETFs have become a major attraction, with total scale reaching 1 trillion yuan, and ETFs linked to the Hang Seng Technology Index nearing 200 billion yuan, indicating sustained investor interest in the Hong Kong tech sector [2] - Ahead of the Spring Festival, market risk appetite has turned cautious, with public funds focusing more on safety margins and allocation space; long-term underweight stocks are seeing a recovery trend, driven by weak reduction motivation, significant expectation gaps, and the resonance of dividend strategies, becoming core targets for capital allocation [2]