startrader：黄金、白银直线下跌！事关降息 美联储最新发声！

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold and silver prices is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's latest statements regarding interest rate adjustments and inflation expectations, which have significantly influenced market sentiment and precious metal prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 12, gold and silver prices experienced a notable decline, with London gold at $5058.46 per ounce, down $1.69 (0.03%), and London silver at $82.253 per ounce, down $0.471 (0.57%) [3]. - The domestic market mirrored this trend, with Shanghai gold at 1130.7 yuan per gram and Shanghai silver at 20965 yuan per kilogram, both under pressure despite minor rebounds [3]. - Physical gold and silver markets showed mixed results, with some retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing slight price increases, while investment gold bars from China Construction Bank dropped by 0.77% to 1135.42 yuan per gram [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Statements - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester indicated that the current monetary policy is well-positioned, suggesting that interest rates will remain unchanged for an extended period [4]. - Mester highlighted that inflation remains elevated, with expectations of around 3% for the year, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, necessitating clear evidence of declining prices before considering rate adjustments [4]. - Other Fed officials expressed differing views on the need for rate cuts, contributing to market uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [4]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Data - Market pricing for Fed rate cuts has shifted, with only a 5.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in March and a 94.1% chance of maintaining current rates [5]. - The strong non-farm payroll data for January, showing an increase of 130,000 jobs and a drop in unemployment to 4.3%, has reinforced the Fed's stance on keeping rates steady [5]. - Analysts have varied interpretations of the recent price declines, with some adjusting their expectations for rate cuts from March to May, while others believe the Fed's cautious approach may extend the pause on rate cuts longer than anticipated [6].