中信证券：预计鲍威尔任期内美联储将不再降息

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that after the release of January's non-farm payroll data, market concerns regarding the "annual benchmark overhaul" have diminished, leading to a downward adjustment in interest rate cut expectations [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in March has increased from 78.4% to 94.1%, while the probability for April has risen from 57.3% to 76.6% [1] - Analysts from CITIC Securities believe that under the leadership of Waller, significant interest rate cuts will not be made in response to Trump's demands, as decisions will primarily be based on economic fundamentals [1] Group 2 - Waller is attentive to inflation risks but is not strictly hawkish; the analysts predict that there may be 1-2 interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, depending on inflation trends [1] - If factors such as oil prices and tariffs lead to a rebound in inflation and inflation expectations, the space for rate cuts will be limited, potentially resulting in only one 25 basis point cut in the second half [1] - Conversely, if inflation stabilizes and declines, there could be two 25 basis point cuts in the latter half of the year [1]