俄罗斯Nornickel：2025全球镍市供应过剩 今年供需存在高度不确定性

Group 1 - Nornickel reports that the global nickel market will experience a surplus for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, with a surplus of approximately 240,000 tons, primarily due to continuous supply growth, especially from Indonesia, which accounts for 66% of global supply [1] - Nickel consumption is expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 3.62 million tons in 2025, driven by the stainless steel (4% growth), alloys (5% growth), specialty steel (2% growth), and battery (2% growth) industries [1] - Nickel supply is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year to 3.86 million tons, reflecting ongoing capacity expansion in Indonesia, with NPI production in Indonesia expected to rise by 15% [1] Group 2 - The nickel market outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with high uncertainty regarding supply-demand balance depending on the implementation of Indonesia's production cut plans [2] - If the situation develops according to the most aggressive scenario, the market may achieve balance or face a supply gap, while maintaining the status quo could increase the surplus to 275,000 tons [2] - Nickel demand is expected to continue steady growth, increasing by 6% year-on-year to 3.83 million tons, driven by stainless steel production and supported by other industries [2] Group 3 - Indonesia's government has been taking measures since August 2025 to curb supply surplus and improve industry governance, including strengthening licensing regulations and adjusting mining quotas [3] - Reports suggest that Indonesia may reduce nickel mining quotas to 250-260 million tons by December 2025, which could lead to market balance or a supply gap [3] - Only Indonesia can bring the nickel market closer to balance through strategic production control and a more value-focused policy framework [3]