日本股市创历史新高 可持续性存疑

Group 1 - The recent Japanese House of Representatives election resulted in a ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party securing a majority of seats, which has led to a strong rally in the Japanese stock market and a slight rebound in the yen [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high of 57,960.19 points following the election, driven by expectations of policy continuity, overseas investments, yen arbitrage trading, and the Bank of Japan's asset purchase program [2][3] - The Japanese stock market's performance is not reflective of domestic economic improvement but is influenced by the government's commitment to fiscal policies, including increased spending in defense and semiconductor subsidies, and tax reductions to alleviate inflation impacts [2][3] Group 2 - Japanese companies are increasingly focusing on overseas investments, with 50% of their revenues coming from international markets, particularly in the top ten companies where this figure rises to 70% [3] - The low financing costs in Japan have facilitated yen arbitrage trading, making it an attractive tool for global capital operations, which has led to significant inflows into the Japanese stock market [3][5] - The Bank of Japan holds a substantial portion of Japanese stocks, with its holdings accounting for 29.8% of the total market capitalization, which has been a key driver of the stock market's rise [3][5] Group 3 - Long-term uncertainties include fiscal sustainability, inflation expectations, and potential geopolitical risks stemming from Japan's "Japan First" policy, which could destabilize the region and affect the yen's safe-haven status [5][6] - The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to rising inflation and increased debt levels, with the government needing to issue more bonds, which could negatively impact bond prices and yields [5][6] - If the Bank of Japan is forced to raise interest rates, it could lead to higher financing costs and a reduction in arbitrage trading, potentially causing significant issues for the stock market [6]