PTA 重新步入累库阶段

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is experiencing a recovery in processing fees, leading to increased production activity and rising operating rates, which in turn is creating supply pressure [2][3][4] Group 1: Industry Supply and Demand Dynamics - PTA processing fees have rebounded to a normal level of 400 yuan/ton after hitting a historical low of 80 yuan/ton, prompting a recovery in production and a potential increase in operating rates [2] - Domestic PTA operating rates are currently at a three-year low, down 6.04 percentage points year-on-year, but the weekly production has reached 1.46 million tons due to increased capacity [2] - As of February 5, domestic PTA social inventory rose to 3.25 million tons, an increase of 3.55% from the previous week, indicating a return to a phase of inventory accumulation [3] Group 2: Impact on Downstream Industries - The polyester sector, particularly polyester filament and bottle-grade polyester, has seen some profit improvement due to the recent profit redistribution in the chemical fiber industry [4] - Despite the profit recovery, downstream polyester production rates are declining, with polyester enterprises operating at 77.93%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year, and weaving industry operating rates at 27%, down 22 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - High inventory levels in polyester filament products compared to the previous year are creating de-inventory pressure, which may affect the pace of enterprise resumption after the Spring Festival [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The PTA market remains in a state of oversupply, with price increases viewed as a rebound rather than a sustainable trend, as the underlying issue of supply exceeding demand persists [4] - The combination of profit recovery and raw material support has led to a rebound in PTA futures prices since November, but the accumulation of inventory alongside increased operating rates suggests a return to a weaker market position [4]