二度闯关IPO 绿控传动三大隐忧待解

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Green Control Transmission Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Green Control Transmission") is making a renewed attempt to go public, shifting its listing from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to the Growth Enterprise Market, with a significantly increased fundraising target of 1.58 billion yuan. As a core supplier of electric drive systems for new energy commercial vehicles, the company has achieved rapid turnaround in performance but faces challenges such as high customer concentration, ongoing cash flow pressure, and aggressive capacity expansion [1]. Group 1: Business Model and Customer Dependency - Green Control Transmission has developed a unique "shareholder as customer" model, where major shareholders like SANY Group and XCMG Group are also key business partners, providing stable orders but imposing constraints on independent market development [2]. - Financial data indicates that this model significantly supports revenue, with the "SANY system" and "XCMG system" contributing over 40% of revenue from 2022 to 2024, and the top five customers maintaining a high revenue concentration [2][3]. - Long-term implications of this deep binding include weakened bargaining power, limited market expansion, and potential homogenization of technology, which may hinder the company's ability to compete effectively in the market [3]. Group 2: Financial Health and Cash Flow Challenges - Green Control Transmission has successfully turned a profit, improving its financial statements, but faces ongoing cash flow challenges, high accounts receivable, and rising interest-bearing debt, raising concerns about the quality of earnings and financial stability [5]. - From 2022 to the first half of 2025, the company reported negative net cash flow from operating activities totaling over 538 million yuan, contrasting sharply with its growing revenue and net profit, indicating a "paper wealth" situation [5][6]. - The high accounts receivable, amounting to 833 million yuan and constituting about 27% of total assets, exacerbates cash flow issues and operational efficiency, while the company's negative retained earnings and rising debt levels further strain its financial structure [5][6]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Market Risks - Green Control Transmission plans to raise 1.58 billion yuan, with nearly 90% allocated to expanding production capacity for electric drive systems, aiming for an annual production capacity of 100,000 units [8]. - The current industry is undergoing structural adjustments, and large-scale capacity expansion requires careful assessment of market capacity and competition to avoid overcapacity risks [8][9]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with multiple leading and emerging companies increasing their production capacity, raising the risk of homogenized competition. Without sufficient technological barriers and cost advantages, relying solely on scale expansion may not yield sustainable competitive strength [8][9].