CBO重磅预测：美国财政赤字将持续扩大，特朗普低利率美梦难圆

Core Viewpoint - The CBO forecasts a slight increase in the U.S. budget deficit to $1.853 trillion for FY 2026, indicating a deterioration in fiscal conditions under President Trump's economic policies [1] Group 1: Budget Deficit Projections - The budget deficit for FY 2026 is projected to be approximately 5.8% of GDP, consistent with the 2025 fiscal year deficit of $1.775 trillion [1] - Over the next decade, the average deficit rate is expected to reach 6.1%, rising to 6.7% by FY 2036, significantly above the Treasury Secretary's target of around 3% [1] - The CBO's current deficit forecast for FY 2026 is $100 billion (8%) higher than its January 2025 estimate, with cumulative deficits from 2026 to 2035 increasing by $1.4 trillion (6%) [3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Tax Policies - The CBO's economic growth forecast is notably lower than the Trump administration's, predicting a 2.2% year-over-year GDP growth in Q4 2026, with an average of about 1.8% over the next decade [1] - The anticipated investment tax credits and larger personal tax refunds in 2026 will be offset by larger fiscal deficits and a slowdown in labor force growth due to reduced immigration [2] Group 3: Interest Costs and Debt Levels - Net interest expenditures are projected to more than double from $970 billion in FY 2025 to $2 trillion by FY 2035, driven by rising federal debt [4] - The total public debt is expected to reach $56.152 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120% by 2036, up from 99% in FY 2025 [5] - The aging baby boomer generation is contributing significantly to rising Medicare and Social Security costs, further exacerbating the deficit [4]